PwC comments on November 2023 retail sales figures

Commenting on the Office of National Statistics retail sales index for November 2023

Lisa Hooker, Leader of Industry for Consumer Markets at PwC states:

“At a headline level, retail sales increased in November compared with October’s disappointing performance, with sales volumes - excluding petrol - up 1.3% on the previous month, and they were also up 0.3% vs the previous year.

Almost all of the increase was due the early start to Black Friday which we identified in our online promotions tracker, as well as the more seasonal wetter and colder weather at the start of the month, encouraging more shoppers to spend earlier in the month.

However, a note of caution interpreting November’s results as they did not include the whole Black Friday weekend. The longer term trend suggests that Black Friday is no longer giving the same boost to retailers as previously, with the non-seasonally adjusted sales peak falling every year since 2019. This echoes the findings of our own survey which showed a quarter fewer consumers interested in Black Friday overall. 

Indeed, non-food volumes remained 2.7% below pre-pandemic levels, in spite of the apparent improvement last month.

This means that, in spite of the headline improvement in sales last month, Christmas is still likely to come down to the wire for retailers. Consumers said they would spend less overall, but can they be persuaded to spend more than they planned in the final weekend before the big day itself? And, if not, the likelihood of bumper Boxing Day sales to clear seasonal stock will only increase.

Regardless, the Golden Quarter will have been a disappointment for many retailers, and they will be hoping that the improving macroeconomic backdrop of lower inflation and increasing real wages will improve their outlook in the new year.