Midlands Black Friday Predictions

PwC has released its annual Black Friday survey showing mixed fortunes for UK retailers in one of the biggest events of the year. The anticipated UK spend for 2023 is £5.6bn - a noticeable drop from the £7.1bn forecast in 2022. Consumers committing to spend in the West Midlands and East Midlands has declined to 15% and 11% respectively in 2023. This pattern is mirrored across the UK with national interest dropping from 61% in 2022 to 44% in 2023, the lowest seen for a number of years - outside of the 2020 lockdown.

However, East Midlands consumers expressing interest and that they may purchase during Black Friday has increased to 33% in 2023, providing a boost to the retailers and local high-streets. 

Despite the overall decline, both East and West Midlands high-streets are set to benefit with over a third of consumers who are planning to shop this Black Friday stating they will be going in-store or taking advantage of click & collect services. 

Sarah Phillips, PwC Partner and Consumer Markets Leader for the Midlands, said:

“It’s unsurprising that consumers committing to spend on Black Friday has  decreased overall this year, with household budgets under pressure due to the cost of living crisis. That said, some consumers will be on the lookout for deals ahead of Christmas, with 29% of West Midlands and 33% of East Midlands shoppers stating they are interested in the event and may buy if the right purchase is available. This follows our recent seasonal sentiment survey that found that a high proportion of Midlands consumers had already started their Christmas shopping with a view to spreading the cost of the festive period. 

“Our Midlands high-streets can expect to see footfall during the Black Friday events, with consumers heading in-store to shop or collect purchases. This highlights the importance of retailers diversifying their offerings to include multiple channels for consumers to shop and receive their purchases, to ensure the experience is as frictionless as possible.”

UK Outlook

The research shows that the greatest interest is from under-45s and Black Friday shopping continues to be predominantly an online phenomenon. Even so, interest for the under-45s has dropped by between 15 and 20 percentage points. This year interest levels have also equalised between men and women, with men having been more enthusiastic Black Friday shoppers in the past.  Overall, the proportion who don't intend to buy at all has increased from 39% in 2022 to 56% in 2023. 

Men are more likely to buy for themselves (70%) with their most popular category being technology and electronics (59% of male shoppers). Conversely, women are more interested in buying for the family (74%) and their top categories are fashion (42%), tech (40%) and Christmas gifts (39%). Also, women have a higher interest in spending on fashion this year compared with last (38% vs 32% in 2022). 

Whilst it remains predominantly an online event in the UK (68% of spending), a bigger proportion of spending is expected to be in-store this year. One in three pounds of Black Friday spending are expected to be in-store or via click and collect, compared with one in four pounds two years ago. This is driven by young people with almost half of spending by under 25s expected to be in-store or by click and collect. This echoes earlier research carried out by PwC that showed a post pandemic resurgence of young people wanting to experience shopping in real life.

Lisa Hooker, Leader of Industry for Consumer Markets at PwC UK, discusses why Black Friday remains an important part of the Golden Quarter calendar:

“Shoppers are telling us they want to spend less this Black Friday for a number of reasons. For men who look forward to a deal on the latest technology, some may be put off by fewer new releases. For many, purse strings are a little tighter this time around, with the improvement in consumer sentiment we saw earlier in the year having slowed over the summer. Finally, the timing of Black Friday a little earlier this year and before payday for many people will inevitably have an impact on spending.

But not all is lost. For those interested in Black Friday, spending per head is expected to be higher, with the top three categories of interest remaining technology, fashion and gifting. And there is an opportunity for retailers to convert the 28% of shoppers that are in the ‘may be interested’ category - we know British consumers love a bargain, so putting the right promotion in front of them could turn into promising sales.

Looking forward, consumers still prioritise special occasions and time with family, which means that we are still optimistic about the outlook for retailers this Christmas. Indeed, over one third of shoppers tell us they have started Christmas shopping earlier, with many of them doing so in order to help with budgeting for the festive period.”