Commenting on the Office of National Statistics retail sales index for November 2024, Lisa Hooker, Leader of Industry for Consumer Markets:
"There was a small headline rise in November’s retail sales, up 0.2% in value terms compared with this time last year, and seemingly reversing the weaker trend from the previous couple of months. Today’s figures showed notable upticks in grocery, furniture and speciality retail sales, although these were all against particularly weak comparatives in October."
"However, these numbers should be interpreted with caution, as the reporting period this year ends one week prior to Black Friday unlike last year, and also includes the disruption caused by snow and Storm Bert in the second half of the month. The overwhelmingly online nature of Black Friday also meant that these figures showed a slowdown in ecommerce penetration, falling from 27.5% in October to 26.2% in this period, and reversing the trend this year, as shoppers waited for the best bargains to drop the week after reporting ended."
"Not surprisingly, fashion continued to be the weakest category, with clothing retail sales falling by 8.1% in volume terms and 6.8% in value terms compared with last November, not helped by the combination of a relatively mild start to the month slowing demand for seasonal lines and shoppers holding off for Black Friday. This means that fashion retailers have seen volumes decline in all but one month since September 2023."
"Overall, sales volumes remain muted and below pre-pandemic levels. However, given the exclusion of Black Friday from these results, they should not be taken as an indicator of wider retail performance in the run-up to Christmas. Other, more timely industry indicators as well as our own consumer research found greater interest in Black Friday this year, which would have boosted sales of fashion and electricals at the end of November, after the end of the reporting period."
"The all-important final weeks in the run-up to Christmas are also looking rosier for the retail sector, with signs of consumer confidence settling post-Budget, higher disposable income compared with last year, and less disruption due to everything from the weather to industrial disputes. So we remain cautiously optimistic that December’s retail sales will outperform, in line with consumers’ expectations, with our own forecast suggesting that spending on presents and festivities will increase by 5% this year."
About PwC
At PwC, our purpose is to build trust in society and solve important problems. We’re a network of firms in 149 countries with more than 370,000 people who are committed to delivering quality in assurance, advisory and tax services. Find out more and tell us what matters to you by visiting us at www.pwc.com.
© 2024 PwC. All rights reserved.
