Commenting on the Office of National Statistics retail sales index for October 2024, Lisa Hooker, Leader of Industry for Consumer Markets:
“October’s retail sales slowed further following September’s slight improvement, with a headline decline of 0.7% in sales volumes vs the previous month. Compared with last year, retail sales volumes grew by just 2.0% excluding petrol, or 1.8% in pound note value terms, both representing slowdowns on September and in spite of a weak comparative period last year. However, direct comparisons are tricky due to half term for some parts of the country falling outside of the comparable period this year.”
“After last month’s bounceback supported by end-of-summer clearance sales, fashion was the hardest hit category, not helped by slightly warmer weather inhibiting the sales of new season’s autumn-winter lines. Grocery also had a more challenging month, partly due to the phasing of half term, and as shoppers kept their powder dry ahead of Black Friday and Christmas.”
“Online penetration also fell back slightly, despite the decline in retail footfall, also suggesting that shoppers were holding onto their wallets both on the high street and on their mobile phones.”
“It’s clear that falling consumer sentiment and uncertainty ahead of the Budget at the end of last month put a dampener on shoppers’ plans, with unfortunate timing at the start of retail’s critical Golden Quarter. With shoppers also telling us that they had started their Christmas shopping early, this does not bode well for the upcoming festive season.”
“However, what gives us confidence that there could be light at the end of the tunnel is that with no major overnight personal tax rises the Budget largely did not affect consumer spending power in the short term. Moreover, our most recent survey at the start of November found that shoppers were planning to spend almost 40% more than last year over the Black Friday sales period, helped by both higher disposable income and later timing after payday compared with last year. According to PwC estimates, that would represent a further £2bn boost in Black Friday spending in 2024 compared with 2023.”
“Retailers will be hoping that the momentum gained by an improving sales trend in November sets them in good stead for a recovery in December, as Christmas shopping gets into full swing.”
About PwC
At PwC, our purpose is to build trust in society and solve important problems. We’re a network of firms in 149 countries with more than 370,000 people who are committed to delivering quality in assurance, advisory and tax services. Find out more and tell us what matters to you by visiting us at www.pwc.com.
© 2024 PwC. All rights reserved.
