PwC comments on March 2024 retail sales figures

Commenting on the latest ONS inflation data for March 2024, Lisa Hooker, PwC Leader of Industry for Consumer Markets states:

"March’s retail sales figures should always be taken with a pinch of salt, as the ONS attempts to adjust for the impact of an earlier Easter. Following February's slowdown, which has been adjusted upwards, official figures suggest that March sales volumes were flat.

Grocery fell back slightly according to today’s figures. While supermarkets benefitted from the earlier Easter, the slighter warmer weather and additional bank holidays encouraged more consumers back to hospitality with stronger restaurant and pub performance. Easter chocolate sales were subdued with the impact of chocolate price inflation and new health regulations meaning promotional displays had to be less prominent in stores.

Online penetration was also flat, with the wet weather easing and more shoppers venturing back to high streets and covered shopping centres, with higher footfall over the bank holiday weekend.

What is clear is that the first quarter of the year has been disappointing for many retailers. Lower inflation and the first 2% cut to National Insurance which was felt in January’s pay packets has yet to translate into a sustained recovery in spending.

Going forward, we are optimistic that the picture will improve from April onwards, particularly if inflation hits the Bank of England’s 2% target as many economists predict. The psychological impact of that, combined with rises in National Living Wage, state pension and benefits, plus the second cut in National Insurance, might provide weary consumers with the fillip they need to start spending again, after a decidedly slow start to 2024."