After a period of significant macroeconomic headwinds in 2022 and 2023, which led to challenging market conditions and subdued deal activity, throughout 2024 we have started to see increasing macroeconomic stability in Europe and the US, particularly in Q2 and Q3. With inflation in most developed regions demonstrating a sustained trend towards central bank targets, central banks are beginning to loosen monetary policies with a series of interest rate cuts already undertaken in the UK, Europe and the US with markets expecting further cuts to come in Q4-24 and 2025.
Leveraging an improving macroeconomic backdrop, 30% of the Top 100 Unicorns as at 30 Sep-24 have undertaken a form of a funding round during the period, which has led to an increase in valuation. This compares to 12% last year. The increased activity has led to a 10% increase in the value of the Top 100 (2023: 1% decline). Perhaps surprisingly, the three largest valuation increases didn’t come from companies linked to AI, with US based space travel, UK Fintech and US E-commerce Unicorns each recording increases of more than $20bn. Whilst the headline data shows an improving picture compared to last year, the majority of the Top 100 cohort (70%) did not execute a funding round, possibly indicating that valuation aims remain hard to achieve as investors continue to be selective. We also note that where companies have successfully executed a funding round, these may have come with trade-offs, such as earlier stage investor dilution or liquidation event preferences.
IPO exit volumes are still subdued despite IPO markets in Europe and the US showing a level of improvement as we are beginning to see renewed sponsor appetite for IPOs with a number of large private equity-backed IPOs pricing. Investors however remain selective and focused on valuations, requiring appropriate IPO discounts to stimulate positive post-IPO performance and whilst successful Unicorns are able to receive investment from private markets, there is no rush for Unicorns to come to public markets.
Whilst we have seen an increase in funding round activity this year, headwinds remain and a significant cohort of the current Top 100 are yet to complete a more recent funding round, making it challenging to understand the underlying valuations of many of the Top 100. As the macroeconomic landscape continues to improve, we expect a further increase in funding round and deal activity over the next 12 months as companies seek further investment to execute strategies and investors look for exit/liquidity events - whether valuations hold up remains the key question. Q4-24 has already started strong with a US AI Unicorn announcing a funding round which valued the business at $157bn (+82%). With positive signs in the UK, European and US IPO markets, we hope to see more Unicorns coming to the public markets over the next 12 months after a sustained period of subdued IPO activity amongst the Unicorns cohort.
“The past 12 months have seen a steady improvement in the macroeconomic environment, which has supported increased funding round activity for the global Top 100 Unicorns. The level of turnover in the Top 100 also increased with 15 new entrants to the list in the period, a number of which play into the AI investment boom. Sentiment towards investment in high growth companies is certainly more encouraging but valuation challenges persist and Unicorns continue to need to demonstrate a more robust business and financial model to underpin target valuations.”
Michael Wisson, Partner, Capital Markets, PwC UK
“Despite challenging headwinds for fundraising, appetite remains strong for premium assets with a sustainable growth story, particularly those in sectors with strong long-term market tailwinds. Route and timing to exit remain a key challenge for many Unicorns, but there is some positive sentiment starting to come through in 2024.”
Katrina Hallpike, Partner, Valuations, PwC UK
Source: PitchBook Data, Inc with PwC analysis
Source: PitchBook Data, Inc with PwC analysis
Source: PitchBook Data, Inc with PwC analysis
* Data sources: PitchBook Data, Inc with PwC analysis, this includes industry classifications. Data has not been reviewed by PitchBook analysts.