Video Transcript: Refinancing and cash forecasting in a choppy market

Transcript

Jeremy Webb: Welcome to today's Act Now Webcast. My name's Jeremy Webb, and I'm a restructuring partner at PwC, focusing on large and complex restructuring projects. Today's webcast, refinancing in a choppy market, will focus on the challenges that we and our clients are seeing when trying to deliver refinancing solutions, and how that is increasingly blurring the lines with the restructuring market. The last three years have seen an almost never-ending barrage of disruptive events in the business world. In that period we've had COVID, the chip shortage, the supply chain collapsing, the sewage blockage, the war in Ukraine, the war on talent, the energy crisis, and now inflation rates not seen since the 1980s. The Bank of England has responded by raising interest rates to their current level of 5%, from a level that was effectively zero as recently as eighteen months ago. And while that, as a headline figure, doesn't compare to the 15% interest rates seen in the early 1990s, because of the level of debt in issue now, the recent interest rate rises actually take mortgage affordability back into the level of the early 1990s, when the issue was referred to as a mortgage crisis. There are, of course, differences to the 1990s. Unemployment levels are still low, and economic outlooks suggest that we will avoid a recession. But the world has become a more volatile place and we stand on what could be the precipice of a technological revolution. Gen AI will be both a huge opportunity and a huge threat, depending on where you start from.

And it's this complexity and ambiguity that makes the historical approach for planning and financing no longer appropriate for the level of uncertainty that persists. To deal with the challenges of the moment, we're going to need to anticipate the challenges of the future. In the next twenty minutes or so we'll try to unpack some of the tools, techniques, and considerations for managing your refinancing in this uncertain world. There'll then be some time for questions at the end, and if you'd like to submit questions as we go, please feel free to type them into the box that you should see at the side of the screen. So, if I turn to the panel, I'd be delighted to introduce Steve Moll, who's a restructuring partner working in my team. Rich Siddall, who's a refinancing partner, and Claire Fox, who leads value, creation and realisation for the consumer markets. Welcome, everyone. Steve, if I come to you first. I know you spend a lot of your time supporting management teams, particularly in respect of their forecasting. So, given the current volatility, how has that changed in recent times?

Steve Moll: Well, it's changed a lot, and, I suppose, to start off just to pick up a couple of the things you raised at the start, Jeremy, I think the first one is uncertainty. You know, we still live in really uncertain times, massive volatility, and that's started in COVID, and we're still right in the midst of that. So, with inflation and interest rates as they stand. I think the second thing is, in the restructuring world, forecasts are typically associated with an ask of stakeholders, and what we are definitely seeing is those always play out, and that could be anything from a covenant reset to a time-to-pay request to HMRC, to an actual request for new money or an extension of facilities. As we see those asks being made, I think the recipients of those asks are being more discerning and asking for more in terms of, you know, the give they provide. Then, as you come back to forecasts, in some ways, nothing's changed. Forecasts are a critical tool for management, to partner forward and to think about their strategy and their longer-term plans, and their short-term plans. But I think, when you come back to that uncertainty point, with all those factors of energy prices in terms of top-line and in terms of people costs, the uncertainty, what that means is that you end up with a much broader spread of outcomes. So, almost the forecasts become a tool for scenario planning, and that's what the best management teams we see are using that forecast as a back stopper or as a basis to, sort of, find internal solutions to do self-help. But also to look for external stakeholders, with that robust platform behind them, to get what they need.

And, I think, the overriding message we would always say is, we do still hear stories of that naïve management team that goes to their stakeholders at the wrong time, but with an unsubstantiated set of forecasts and asks for something that is not deliverable, and ends up with an unfortunate outcome.

Jeremy: Yes. So, can you give us an example here of where it's worked well and with a management team who have done it in the right way, rather than the wrong way?

Steve: Of course. And, obviously, it would be one we've worked with recently, and I suppose, as we got involved this was already a very proactive management team, so they had taken their business through COVID. They were on a really positive, sort of, direction from a profitability point of view post-COVID, but then they were hit. They were high energies, so they were hit very hard by energy. They were also hit very hard by people costs, and what that meant was they needed to, sort of, be very proactive, which they were. They came up with their own, internal plans. So, they came up with plans to take a lot of cost out of their business. But back to the forecasting, the forecast became the thing that bound all of that together, and it had a cohesive plan in terms of what they needed to do, what timetable those cost savings would be delivered over, but also put in place lots of other self-help measures, including scenarios whereby they would need new funding from their stakeholders. And, I suppose, from an outcome point of view, the positive thing you asked for, where did that leave them? It meant that, actually, when they approach their stakeholders in that strategic way, they've got the flexibility when they're doing their capital structure. They've secured new funding from a couple of two or three different sources to bridge to some of those scenarios. And, as we sit here today I know some of that hasn't been needed, and some of that is more of a contingency.

But, I suppose, the really good part of the story is that, given how proactive this business is, they've got that stakeholder engagement that they needed, so they can look forwards and they're already thinking about changing their approach structure and changing their capital structure. And they're taking the stakeholders with them to do that.

Jeremy: I mean, a part of what you've described there, Steve, is the importance of actually having plans to take costs out, etc. I wonder if I can bring Claire in at this point. I mean, that is what you do as a day job. How are people, and how are management teams that you're working with, looking to take out cost, and is that helping them with achieving their refinancing objectives?

Claire Fox: Yes, absolutely. I think, in many cases, echo a lot of what Steve said there. I think we're definitely seeing more and more focus on, 'Let's make sure that I'm doing as much self-help as I possibly can,' so that at the point that I'm both asking for the refinance or for the extra funds, but equally, when I get it, I'm really confident that it is going to the right use that's going to drive growth or return on investment, as opposed to potentially funding inefficiency. So, in that, that absolutely links to cost. And I would say we're seeing more and more of what we would call, or what people refer to as a zero base budget-type approach to cost reduction in a business. So, pre-, sort of, refinancing, thinking about, 'Where am I spending my costs? Where, for example, are my bad costs? Where are the examples where I can cut back?' That could be as simple as cutting back on licenses, all the way through to thinking strategically about, actually, areas of my business where, potentially, that's not where I should be anymore. And really stripping out that, if you like, fat, and doing that in a way that means you can have real confidence that, strategically, your areas of investment are additive, is a big focus. And I really echo the point there as well, that Steven made about the realistic plan. Having that plan and being able to demonstrate that you are delivering against that plan, through that refinancing process, gives confidence to lenders.

Jeremy: Perhaps you can bring that to life as to how that's worked in reality with the, you know, a client situation.

Claire: Sure. So, there was a business that we worked with recently, and in this case, they were looking for funds to move into a, kind of, a transient market. A market that they had synergies with, and they needed funds to do so. In this example, they had two concerns. The first concern was making sure, obviously, that the funds stuck up, there would be ROI, concern about, sort of, more of the richest world in terms of funds. But the secondary for them was capacity. If we get the funds, 'Actually, we're running so hard at the moment. Will we have the capacity to deploy it in the right way and realise the value?' So, with this business, they really looked at where they were spending their time, and where they were spending their cost on their third parties, and, actually, where could they automate? Where could they pull back on those costs? Where could they do things differently, better to release that cost? And the main thing for them was they released 20% of their capacity, which released people to be able to actually deliver against. And that also reduced the funding needed, and they were able to show to lenders, 'We were asking for this. We're able to reduce that funding need a bit because we've been able to release this much within our business.'

Jeremy: I mean, that's really interesting is that we all know how hard it is to actually stop doing things, particularly if you've got projects underway. You know, maybe people have got wedded to the projects and they've designed it, they're implementing it, and delivering it. And, actually, to be able to encourage a client to stop doing something to create that capacity is really, you know, makes a big difference to the forecasting.

Claire: Sacred cows. We all have them. I think there was a great example of this recently, actually, where there was a business that was doing big store refit, and they had brought in a third party, and the third party was very motivated in the commercial model to do as many refits as possible on a weekly basis, contingent model. And off they went. And they were doing the refits. The problem was there wasn't the structure in place in the business that really the day-to-day trading functions were really talking to the change functions. And, in this case, as the stores were being converted, sales were going through the floor. And it took six weeks for that to be realised. And that's quite, I guess, quite a dramatic example, but it really points to, A, thinking about the lead and lag indicators, but also going back and thinking about a project that may have made sense previously, does it still make sense in today's economy? What's going on around it? All of that good stuff, but also that, kind of, looking at things as I go and being prepared to stop, and being really on top of those lead and lag indicators.

Jeremy: So, we've got a good plan. We've identified all the things you can do with self-help. We've taken a whole load of cost out. We've reduced the financing need. We come direction (ph 11.08) it's easy to go and raise the finance then, isn't it?

Rich Siddall: I wish, Jeremy. Look, in your introduction you mentioned there a number of issues that everybody's facing, and these have had a significant impact on the debt markets. There's no doubt in that. And whether you're looking at certain sectors, or the cost of debt, or the leverage that people can achieve, things have changed, and I think it's important that people don't approach their next refinancing assuming it'll be the same as last time around because certain things have changed. But I think I do want to spend a couple of minutes just talking about some positives. You know, this is not 0809 (ph 11.44) where liquidity completely dried up. What we've seen over the last ten years is an explosion in the debt markets in terms of options that are available. And we're now looking at a market that has, as I've said, many options, but alongside traditional banks you've now got challenger banks. You've got private debt funds, you've got asset-based lenders, asset-based lending funds, special situation funds. So, there are a number of options that are out there, and it's more now, in most cases, about the lender's appetite to lend rather than their ability. So, for good businesses, with the plans that you've talked about already, we are still seeing deals being done and lending being made. On the flip side, there are sin taxes where it is a bit more challenging for all the reasons you've mentioned already. And, therefore, I think it's really important that as those borrowers go and approach lenders, they're really mindful that things have changed.

That they can't assume that it's the same as before. That the debt markets are even more complex than they've ever been, and that when they are approaching lenders, it's important that they're going to right lender with the right structure and the right ask, and a solid business plan that supports that.

Jeremy: So, a more complex environment and more lenders to choose from. How would you advise a corporate to go about navigating that market?

Rich: I think to try and answer that it's important that we understand what's going on in each of the different markets, because they do react quite differently. So, if I can just take a couple of minutes to just run through what we're seeing in the debt markets. So, we get the large corporate end. So, investment grade, appetite continued, but it's still the investment grade. Recent data is showing that in the high yield bottom market and the term-loan B market, volumes are as low as they've been since '08 '09. Price in the cost of that debt is the highest it's been in the last twenty years. So, you can see that there have been challenges in that market. That said, the team I'm currently working on are very significant sterling facility, where we've been able to arrange that and it's currently going through bank syndication. So, the banks are, they're showing the appetite that I talked about. If you talk about private debt and direct lending funds, we now track over 120 direct lenders. They've deployed into deals across Europe and they've got significant capital to deploy into the right deals. So, that certainly is an option for a number of borrowers. They do pay for private equity back businesses, but that is a market that didn't exist last time we faced challenges. Traditional bank market. The banks will all capitalise. They've got appetite, as I've talked about. They are looking to go, probably fair to say bigger into better, stronger businesses. But there's appetite there in the banking market. Asset-based lending is an area that's really interesting for us because they lend against the asset there.

They underpin their downside risk and so, therefore, they work really well in a period like this where you're going through the cycle. So, really, we see asset-based lenders seeing this as their time to step up. And as I've mentioned before, we've now got a special situation from Zenob funds, so really, you've got a spectrum of lenders who can price risk accordingly. I think, maybe, that it's even a combination of the above, and that you need a solution.

Jeremy: So, is there an example where you've used a combination, perhaps, to refinance a more traditional lending structure?

Rich: Yes. We're seeing this quite commonly, actually. And I'd give you an example of a manufacturer we've worked with this year. So, ultimately, manufactured goods, they go into the consumer market, which I've already touched on, is something that lenders are looking at closely. At the same time, they are looking at a change in business plan and needed investment into that, to support that business plan. And then we're seeing raw material prices really volatile during that period. So, the ender solution that we've come to for that business is traditional bank lend alongside an independent ABL, which can help with the working capital movements, and an ABL fund, which sits above that, which provides them with the headroom that they need to deal with whatever they face this year.

Jeremy: So, with all of the options available with the, kind of, you know, the slightly more difficult end of the market, what are the sorts of businesses, therefore, that are finding it difficult to refinance? Particularly, I guess, with the increase I the cost of debt?

Rich: Well, I think it's as business has come close to maturity of those facilities that they're previously put in, if you think the last time they put these facilities in we were in a very different world. And as I've said earlier, I don't think you can assume that it will be the same refinancing now as it previously was. And, therefore, it's important that businesses really start early, they look at their options available, because terms are probably going to have changed. Cost has definitely gone up, and that is becoming a big factor. Terms are tighter and leverage has come down. So, you can't take for granted the refinancing, the existing lender will just roll over. And, therefore, it's important that you're looking at this a long time out early ahead of that maturity.

Jeremy: So, I'm going to bring that back, perhaps, to Claire. You're sitting alongside a management team and, in that period, they're trying to get prepped a bit earlier. What should borrowers be doing at that stage to really make sure they're positioning themselves to be successful?

Claire: Yes. I think we've seen a few of these, particularly where, perhaps, it's taking a bit longer for businesses. The first thing I would say is cash is king, as I'm sure lots of people talk about at the moment. But we have seen businesses where that need to really focus on the cash-flow forecast, as Steve touched on before as well, to make sure that they're going to have the time, but also to show lenders and give that confidence to lenders, 'We are on top of cash. We've shared a forecast with you, and over this period of time, you can see that we are hitting it.' And, therefore, doing that, kind of, cash management. The other piece that we've touched on, cost. I've talked a lot about cost, that I would, and the piece on cost is to really have the confidence that you really have got the most efficient cost base, you need to have the data. So using that time, and we've seen businesses use that time whether it's that zero based budget approach that we've talked about, kind of, bottom up, whether it's just getting to their third party spend, and really getting that view of where are we spending? Do we need to spend? Know where you're spending, know the value of the spend that you have, know where the activity is being consumed, and challenge it because, again, that's going to really prove to lenders but also part of managing your business as you're bringing that funding, it's going to show that you have that hygiene factor in place.

Jeremy: Great Claire, thank you, I mean I'm going to come back to that data point because I think, like I said at the said, about we're at the edge of this technological revolution. But I know Steve, you and I in the run up to this, we were talking about situations where falling valuations, together with the increased debts, this impacts and challenges (ph 18.46) in refinancing markets, will mean that perhaps some of our clients have had to consider a bit more than doing things better and doing it right, and actually considering breaking themselves up. And I know you've been looking at that.

Steve: Yes very much so, and as I say, I think we're seeing this apply to situations we're involved with but also as we horizon scout some of the things Rich was talking about in terms of future refinancing challenges, this is coming up time and time again. And I think particularly a good example is in some of the higher growth sectors, so things like healthcare, where to be pursue higher growth, you saw things, and you continue to see, things like bolt on's and roll up strategies. And I think where that's interesting is when you put that together with your falling values, and debt capacity issues, you've almost got a zombie meets Frankenstein scenario, and obviously that's really interesting for us. And I think trying to unpick those, and that's absolutely the question we're asking ourselves and our clients are asking us, we really do need to bring together the M&A thinking from our M&A teams, and that's very much a here and now, is there a better value realisation from breaking the business apart? And it's not just a theoretical valuation, it's a real, is there a buyer for that? Or what multiples might I achieve? But that's got to be put very closely alongside a practical question of how do I break it apart? What are the costs associated? What are the risks associated? And it's only when you put those two together that you've got an alternative solution to, sort of, say is it better to break the thing up than just hold tight and hope for the best.

Jeremy: Yes, I agree with that completely, and if I then bring that onto that, I said I'd come back to data, a bit of a change of pace perhaps, digital evolution, ChatGPT, generative AI more widely, a huge theme at the moment, and I know you've been using some of our digital tools on some of the cases you've been working on. Perhaps you can give us a bit of a flavour as to what you've been doing, and perhaps what you see coming in that respect?

Steve: Yes, and as you say, both in terms of our clients and the firm at large, there is a huge amount of talk about technology, digital, ChatGPT etc. I think we have been using it, so a good example if we've been using geospatial tools to look at real estate portfolios for our client, I think we're all very excited by the prospect I think from a restructuring point of view because tech and digital just plays to that point that we need to operate at pace, and quite often we have to gather lots of data very quickly and analyse it. So we are using it, particularly in things like Claire talked about short term cash flow forecasting, great opportunity. It's hard to generalise but if you even just think about one little piece of that in terms of building a short term cash flow forecast, one of the key assumptions about your payment, or your receivables, you know, how do your receivables unwind, if you think about a broad forecast, you could use quite a general assumption, in a bottom up short term forecast, you might be able to unwind the ledger. But what you can do with digital tools and the ability to process more data is to actually look at payment patterns for actual customers and actually bring that to life so that actually you can stress the forecast for that. And so when you start thinking along those lines, you can suddenly see (a) how the forecast can be much better, but (b) how they can be crunched and done in a much faster way.

Jeremy: My view is that as we use this, we'll see lots of additional ways that we'll be able to make things better, make things more accurate, actually getting genuine insight from some of the things that we're doing. At times perhaps even almost by mistake we'll be able to see things that we might not otherwise have picked up. Coming to the end, last question I guess, well on my last here, I'm a restructuring partner but I want to finish on a positive note, so I'm going to come back to our refinancing Richard. What are the current prospects for a business that is out there that is looking to either borrow to grow or to fund M&A at the moment?

Rich: Yes well I think, as I said earlier, there are a number of positives, okay so it is a challenging market at the minute but there are a number of positives and there is significant capital out there, and options available. And what we do see is as shareholders are really looking to create value in a market where growth is lower than it was previously, then M&A is a good tool for growing that value, especially done properly and integrated properly. The great news is lenders like these, they like funding bolt ons, generally they're providing funding into a business they already know well, they know the management team well, they understand the strategy. And therefore they can quickly see whether the acquisition is a good idea or not, and get onboard with that, and it gives them an opportunity to deploy further capital. So we do see that as still continuing, we're very busy on a number of these, as I said, there is still a lot of capital looking to find a home.

Jeremy: Great. So just before we get to questions, and I can see that there are a few turning up there already, quickly to reference the next Act Now (ph 23.34) webcast that we're going to run, which will be after the summer, so that will be at 3pm on 4th October. Invites will be sent directly to people who have opted into the Act Now updates, or indeed to our restructuring trends newsletter, but if you aren't on those and you would like to be added, please do drop me or the team an email. So let's go to questions, and I think the first one, probably this one looks like, for me, I'm going to target to you Rich, and I'll read it as it says there at the moment. So I've seen lots about carbon metrics in refinancing, how much of an issue is this?

Rich: Okay, I think I'd like to perhaps widen that question to how important is ESG generally in refinancing? And the very simple answer is very, so let me expand on that. I think really there are two things to look at. So taking a step back, the banks and lenders have their purpose there, their own net zero commitments, their own strategies, and that really plays down into the portfolio companies because they're part of their business. So it's really important that a borrower, for a lender to continue with a borrower, that that borrower helps them achieve what they're trying to achieve. So if you're already in with a lender in the portfolio, as I've said before, you can't assume the last refinancing, the next one will be the same as the last. And where it's really changed is there's a big focus now on what is the ESG strategy of the business and do we want to continue supporting it? So you may find that you get to the end of a facility and actually the bank is having a conversation about your ESG strategy and what are you going to do? And if you don't have that in place, then you may find at some point in the future you need to look for a new home, a new lender. So that's for existing borrowers, for new lending, for those that are approaching new lenders, it used to be the case that you'd get asked a quick question around ESG strategy, and then it became more of a paragraph, now lenders really want to see what is the plan. And I think the bar is getting higher each year for new to bank business, you know, the banks only want to take on the businesses that they can see share their values. So management teams are needing to spend a lot more time on that if they're not already doing that. The next bit that I'll just touch on actually is giving as well as it being a hygiene factor on the weigh-in, it's giving businesses access to capital that perhaps wasn't there before.

So if you're funding a specific purpose then it may open up access to green bonds, social bonds, green loans, things like this. But even if you are not funding a specific purpose, the rise of the sustainability loan for example is really helping lenders lend to those businesses that it can see are on transition. So it's absolutely crucial whichever way you look at it from a refinancing point of view.

Jeremy: And Claire I know you've been looking at this in terms of the businesses you're working with, I mean I don't know if you've got anything to add there about the discounts and the premiums that you get?

Claire: Less so the discounts and the premiums but one thing I would add is I'd come back to one of the points we've talked about before, about data as well. And I think one of the things that we're seeing is the need for businesses to be stress tested on you say that this is what you're doing in ESG, but actually can I see it? Can I see it? Can I track it? And that's why I guess a lot of what we do in cost reduction and supporting with cost reduction, and helping businesses to be able to make sure that they're very clear, it comes out of plans, all of that stuff about making cost reduction sustainable. Actually a big part of the other thing we do is exactly the same with carbon and carbon out. So the programme to deliver it, the clarity of the baseline, as well as the being able to track it and make it sustainable, which more and more lenders are going to want to see that track record.

Jeremy: Yes. Let's go to the next question, and I'll pick one Steve aimed at you here, so you talked earlier about raising finance as part of, I presume, the healthcare business that you were referencing. Did you consider selling any part of that instead?

Steve: Good question, as I say the additional finance that was raised there was very much temporary finance to, sort of, bridge them through the recovery story. So I think no, but I suppose giving the, sort of, follow up question I answered around the break up, I mean absolutely that's something that we would be considering, and increasingly. To play a sacred cow's point of view, I think we would always be charging management teams to say are there parts of the business that don't fit with the business anymore, and can deleverage and generate liquidity? But on that one specifically, no.

Jeremy: Okay, and then I think this one is probably back to Richard, are there any sectors where you don't see refinancing being successful? I mean I know you've always got the glass half full, so presumably there aren't any of those (talking over each other 28.32).

Rich: Well obviously there are sectors like TMT, healthcare etc. which people are still very keen on, I think sectors ultimately things facing into consumer, because of the things that you talked about and the cost of living crisis, all these things, really need to be looked at carefully. But as I've said before, there are now more options. So it may be that some structures and some lenders don't quite have the same appetite for some sectors, but because of what I've already talked about, there may well be a structure or a lender somewhere else that is. So it may be that you can look at an ABL facility that will finance inventory receivables, and therefore the volatility that some sectors are seeing in its profitability is potentially less of an issue, and it's more about the value of the asset. So I think it's changing and it's different within each sector, but you're right, glass half full, I would say that it's harder in some areas, but there are solutions out there.

Jeremy: Yes, and then Steve, probably this one I'll target it at you, how do you know which assumptions to model with so many uncertainties going on?

Steve: Yes that's a good question, quite a broad one, I mean the obvious answer to that is focus on the key assumptions, so there are always going to be half a dozen key assumptions that drive any business, so getting to the bottom of those. The example I gave before, they were high energy users, so the energy assumptions were absolutely critical. I think not twisting that question, but I think the more pertinent thing for me is where do you get the data from to, sort of, generate that assumption? And particularly some of the questions we were asking, back to the example I gave before, there's almost a short term assumption question in terms of what should I use to stress test the forecast in the short to medium term from a liquidity perspective? But what's the assumption I should use to normalise for, to value the business in the longer term? But I think that's where things get really interesting, and back to energy prices, on a number of situations, that's been a really live debate, where we've linked in very heavily with our energy team, he would delight in the question of what is the long run energy assumption? But I think you've got to really get down to that, assumption by assumption, to, sort of, really produce a really robust set of forecasts that (a) as I say are part of the liquidity in the short term, but (b) answer the million dollar question everyone has always got about value, which drops out of the long-term EBITDA.

Jeremy: Yes, I'm going to take one more question I think, I don't really want to run all the time up, but there's one more now, which I think perhaps I'll ask all of you individually. I mentioned generative AI earlier, the questions says what are the threats and opportunities that you say from generative AI? I don't know who wants to start with that, it's quite difficult.

Rich: I think I can take that first, I think when I talk about the debt market as a whole and the number of options that are out there, we track this very carefully and in a lot of detail because, you know, a few years ago we'd be able to get together as a group, as a team, and think about which lenders were most appropriate for a situation. As I've said, if you take one area of the market, say direct lending funds, we're now tracking over 120. Now each of them will have their own lending mandate, their own ticket size, their own sector preference. And so even within that market there is a lot of information out there, there is a lot that you need to get your head around. If you multiply that across the different debt markets, really using it to understand what is out there, who is lending what, what deals are being done, and how relevant is that then to your situation, and then what deals get done, and feeding that back in. You can see how this grows quite exponentially to really giving us the insight that we need into that debt market.

Jeremy: Claire, Steven, anything you want to say on that?

Claire: I'll go glass half full, glass half empty. Glass half full I think is very much for businesses from an operational point of view, the access to data, the access to more just in time data, allowing you to make decisions and be more reactive. Whether that's around understanding your customer, how you flow your supply chain, whatever that is, a real opportunity to, we've talked a lot about costs, to really drive your cost base and put the value where it needs to be, but also to be reactive and drive value. My, kind of, glass half empty I guess would be I think for those that don't get ahead, if not ahead of curve, with the curve, then potentially there is the opportunity for that to be a competitive disadvantage.

Jeremy: I mean I would agree with that completely, my own take on this is that the speed of which some businesses are going to be able to respond to what is actually happening, and the accuracy, the data that they're going to have to take decisions on, is going to transform some areas of the business world. But there are going to be others who are just not able to do that, and will really struggle in a market where suddenly they're getting out competed everywhere because they don't have that insight that others have. And I think that that's going to produce a lot of winners and a lot of losers, and I think the winners will really win and the losers will struggle, and these things could happen I think really quite quickly.

Claire: Super quickly, and I think that's why we will see more partnerships in this space, so people not just trying to do it themselves.

Steve: Yes, I'll be glass half full because I just think it's really exciting, I think as financial advisors, yes we rely on a platform of information, the, sort of, speed we can have-, already talked about the speed we can articulate that and understand that, the better. But I just think back to when I started as a junior in audit, we spent a lot of time photocopying, you know, we'll be stood at a photocopier photocopying documents, and that's not much fun now wanting to do that. I think now for our teams they will be freed up to do the more interesting stuff, add more value, and help us to unpick the big problems like solving the zombie Frankenstein issue.

Jeremy: I think that's probably about enough from the time we've got today, and we might start breaching copyrights if we're not careful soon. I hope everybody has found this useful, but please do let us know if you have any feedback. We haven't managed to quite cover all the questions that we received, so we'll try and follow up directly where we've got contact details on the questions, but also feel free to send those questions directly to us. If you're not on the monthly restructuring trends email and you'd like to be, do drop any of us an email, and as I mentioned earlier, that will ensure you'll get invites to our future webcasts. So it just leaves me to thank the panel, thank you Steve, thank you Rich, thank you Claire, and I hope everyone has a great summer, and we look forward to connecting with you all soon.