COP27 - dubbed the Implementation COP - begins in Sharm-el-Sheikh, on Sunday 6 November with the world looking on to see if its elected leaders can set a course to turn ambition into action.
This 27th COP takes place in a year of severe climate impacts as well as a host of humanitarian challenges from wars on multiple fronts and an uneven recovery from an ongoing pandemic to the growing food, energy, and cost of living crises. It is within this maelstrom that the window for setting ourselves on course for a climate safe world is fast narrowing in what scientists and the UN Secretary General call the “critical decade”.
“COP27’s crucial role is to inject political momentum and to restore trust between governments from the Global North and the Global South to tackle the climate and linked crises together.”
Momentum has stalled since COP26 for the much faster climate action that is needed. Success at COP27 will to a large part depend on making the case that action on climate change provides a pathway out of the multiple, interlinked crises we face and to back this up with accelerated action.
Taking place on the frontlines of climate change in Africa, COP27 is a chance to close the gaps on climate mitigation, which the IPCC describes as “human intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases” and adaptation, “the process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects”. To do this governments and non-state actors (businesses, investors, cities, states, regions and civil society) must show progress on the promises for climate action made to date. While it is not the only space for climate action, COP27 is the major end-of-year adjudication moment where progress since Glasgow can be judged.
The headwinds going into COP continue to signal how far off track we are. Action has so far been inadequate, with only 24 countries communicating new or updated national climate targets (referred to as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)) since COP26. Only last week the UNFCCC NDC Synthesis Report warned us that even if all existing climate pledges were delivered, we would be heading for 2.4oC of warming by the end of this century, far ahead of the safe limit of 1.5oC.
The key priorities at COP27 are:
Mitigation Ambition: Last year’s COP26 Glasgow Climate Pact requested countries “revisit and strengthen” their 2030 NDCs and initiated a Mitigation Work Programme aimed at urgently scaling up mitigation ambition and setting decarbonisation goals for critical sectors for pre-2030. However, none of the major economies came forward with new or updated NDCs this year, so they will need to make clear that they are not turning their back on the shift to clean energy nor backsliding on their climate pledges. The window to keep 1.5oC within reach is fast closing. While raising ambition formally through NDCs sends an important signal, delivering action on the ground is what is urgently required.
Adaptation: Climate change adaptation is how we address the impact of climate change. Every fraction of a degree of warming sees adaptation needs and costs rise quickly. The COP27 Egyptian Presidency has identified adaptation as a key priority for the summit. Securing progress on a Global Goal for Adaptation, which was established at COP21 in Paris, and Glasgow Climate Pact call to double adaptation finance by 2025 will be key metrics of success this year.
Loss and Damage: This refers to the consequences of climate change such as sea level rise and extreme weather events beyond what people cannot adapt to in vulnerable communities that lack the resources and capacity to respond and recover from the impacts. For decades those countries on the frontlines of climate change who have contributed least to global emissions have called on developed countries to provide finance for the permanent losses of lives, livelihoods, land and nature they are contending with. This highly contentious issue in climate negotiations is gaining momentum, with proposals being submitted on what a potential loss and damage finance facility might look like for discussion at COP27. A lack of progress on this issue risks a complete breakdown in constructive talks between developed and developing countries on other matters.
Climate Finance: Countries are heading into COP having not yet delivered on a pledge made all the way back in 2009 to support developing countries with $100bn in climate finance. Critically, the UN estimates that $125 trillion of investment is needed by 2050 to meet net zero. Mobilising private capital is the only way to raise such sums, and we expect several new funds and initiatives to be launched at COP27 showcasing finance mobilisation for emerging and developing markets. The summit is an opportunity for governments and non-state actors to forge new partnerships with climate vulnerable countries, especially across the African continent.
Global Stocktake (GST): The global stocktake process kicked off in 2021 at COP26 and aims to assess collective progress towards achieving the Paris Agreement’s goal to limit global warming to 1.5C. This two-year process concludes in 2023 at COP28, in UAE. The output of the GST should ideally serve as a basis for improved climate ambition and an acceleration of action. Technical expert discussions on the inputs and outputs of the GST will continue at COP27 .
The negative headwinds notwithstanding there have also been a number of positive developments, that give us cause for hope. The US Inflation Reduction Act, which pledged to deliver $369bn in energy security and climate change programmes over the next 10 years, will deliver significant increases in renewable energy capacity - if all goes to plan following the results of the midterm elections. The EU has just agreed to phase out the internal combustion engine by 2035. The newly-elected President of Brazil has put climate change and nature at the heart of his Presidency and Australia is back at the table ready to play its part in addressing the climate crises.
“Political headwinds may be strong but the reality is that action cannot be delayed any longer if there is to be any hope of limiting temperature increases to 1.5oC.”
COP27 will need to deliver new ways to accelerate action across the Paris Agreement goals whilst reasserting the relevance of this multilateral space to address current interlinked challenges. This includes agreeing on how to collectively address climate impacts (reducing and addressing loss and damage), scaling up finance for climate and development and speeding up emissions reductions.
A delegation from PwC will attend COP27 to support our public and private clients to deliver on their COP27 or wider climate objectives while engaging and contributing to key climate conversations.
For more information on how we can help visit our website.
Kiran Sura is an Assistant Director in PwC UK’s Sustainability practice. She is currently on secondment to the Climate Champions Team, where she is a policy advisor to the UN High-Level Climate Champions. She will be attending her 8th COP this year.
